What is the historical context of the Taiwan-China conflict?
The Chinese Civil War was fought between the Kuomintang (KMT)-led
government of the Republic of China (ROC) and forces of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) between 1927-1949 (the two rivals united briefly to
form Second United Front in order to fight the Japanese Invasion of China
along with the Allies of World War 2 between 1937-1945). The Communists
gained the upper hand in the final phase of the war between 1945-1949. They
gained control over mainland China, forcing the leaders of the Republic of
China to retreat to the island of Taiwan. The communists formed themselves
into what we know as the People’s Republic of China today, a communist
dictatorship representing 1.4 billion people. Taiwan, on the other hand, is a
democracy with a population of about 23 million people. China considers
Taiwan a ‘breakaway province’ under its ‘One China Policy,’ which it threatens
to recapture by force if necessary in order to complete the re-unification of
China. Taiwan, however, has existed as an independent nation for over seven
decades and rejects Chinese sovereignty over itself. Both nations claim to be the
legitimate rulers of all of China.
What has caused the recent military confrontation between the two
nations? How serious is the current crisis?
According to the Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan, the People’s Liberation
Air Force (Chinese Air Force) has carried out a record 149 intrusions into the
Taiwanese Air Defense Identification Zone in the first four days of October
alone. Chinese fighter jets and other military aircraft entering Taiwanese airspace is not a new phenomenon, but the sheer scale of this provocation has
alarmed Taipei.
These intrusions coincided with the Chinese National Day, which is celebrated
on the 1st of October every year. The Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu
Kuo-cheng explained the seriousness of the situation stating, “It is the toughest
situation I have seen in more than 40 years of my military life.” He predicted
that by 2025, China would be ready to launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan.
His statement read, “By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its
lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take
many other things into consideration.”
What has been the threat issued by Beijing and how has Taipei responded to it?
China
Chinese President Xi Jinping, addressing the commemorative ceremony of the
110th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution, which ended imperial rule in China,
said, “Dr. Sun Yat-Sen once said unification is the hope of all Chinese people. If
China can be unified all people will enjoy a happy life, if it cannot all will suffer.
The Taiwan issue arose out of the weakness and chaos of the Chinese nation and
it will be resolved as national rejuvenation becomes a reality”. He emphasized
that, “China has a glorious tradition of fighting separatism. The Taiwan
independence is the biggest obstacle to the motherland’s reunification and a
grave danger to national rejuvenation. Those who forget their heritage, betray
their motherland and seek to split the country, will come to no good end and they will be spawned by the people and condemned by history. Reunification through a peaceful manner is mostly in line with the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including our Taiwanese compatriots.” The Chinese President also issued a warning to Washington, stating, “The Taiwan issue is purely China’s internal affair and no outside interference is allowed. No one should underestimate the Chinese people’s determination and strong ability to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” He added, “The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled, and will definitely be fulfilled.” He proposed that reunification can occur under the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ principle, which Beijing already uses to govern Hong Kong. It is pertinent to note that his tone was much more subdued than it was in July this year, when he last spoke about the Taiwan issue at the centenary celebrations of the Chinese Communist Party, vowing to “smash” any Taiwanese independence plots. However, the provocative actions of the PLA Air Force along the Taiwan Strait proves otherwise.
Taiwan
Taiwan celebrated its National Day just a day after Xi Jinping addressed the
looming threat of a Chinese Invasion. In her fiery National Day speech,
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen made it clear that Taiwan will not be bullied.
Her statement read, “We hope for an easing of cross-strait relations and will not
act rashly, but there should be absolutely no illusions that the Taiwanese
people will bow to pressure. We will continue to bolster our national defense and
demonstrate our determination to defend ourselves in order to ensure that
nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for us. This is
because the path that China has laid out offers neither a free and democratic
way of life for Taiwan, nor sovereignty for our 23 million people.” Taiwanese
Foreign Minister Joseph Wu spoke to Australia’s ABC TV on 3rd October and
vowed that Taiwan would fight to the end. His statement read, “The defense of
Taiwan is in our own hands, and we are absolutely committed to that. If China
is going to launch a war against Taiwan, we will fight to the end, and that is our
commitment.” He also warned Beijing, “I'm sure that if China is going to launch
an attack against Taiwan, I think they are going to suffer tremendously as well.”
In response to Xi Jinping’s speech, Taiwan’s Presidential Office rebutted that
the Taiwanese public opinion was very clear in rejecting one country, two
systems. In another statement by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, it called
upon China to abandon its "provocative steps of intrusion, harassment and
destruction." Apart from such fiery responses, Taiwan has also decided to
bolster its own military preparedness. In the next five years, Taiwan plans to
spend about 8.6 billion dollars for home-made missiles and warships. On the
occasion of the Taiwanese National Day, the Taiwanese Armed Forces carried
out drills in a show of military might in the presence of President Tsai Ing-Wen,
sending a clear message to China.
How have the different global players reacted to the current crisis?
1. USA: The American President (POTUS) Joe Biden revealed to the press
that he had spoken to his Chinese counterpart regarding the Taiwan
issue. He said, "I've spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree we'll abide by
the Taiwan agreement. We made it clear that I don't think he should be
doing anything other than abiding by the agreement." Biden was
presumably referring to Washington’s long-standing ‘One-China Policy’
(not to be confused with Beijing’s One-China Policy), wherein it officially
recognizes Beijing (China) over Taipei (Taiwan) with the precondition that
the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means. However, the
Taiwan Relations Act, an act passed by the United States Congress
enables the U.S. Government “to provide Taiwan with arms of a
defensive character and to maintain the capacity of the United States to
resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize
the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan.”
When asked about the situation along the Taiwan Strait at an O.E.C.D.
Press Conference, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken replied, “With
regards to Taiwan, I have to tell you and reiterate that we are very
concerned by the PRC’s provocative military activity near Taiwan. As
we’ve said, the activity is destabilizing, it risks miscalculation, and it has
the potential to undermine regional peace and stability. So we strongly
urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and
coercion directed at Taiwan. We have – the United States has – a
commitment to Taiwan that is rock solid and, over many years, has
contributed to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan
Strait and within the region. And we will continue to stand with friends,
with allies to advance shared prosperity, shared security, shared values,
as well as continue to deepen our ties with a democratic Taiwan.” A
Pentagon official (US government official) John Supple recently admitted
that a team of around 20 US Marines and US Special Operations Unit
have been operating in Taiwan since almost a year in order to train
Taiwanese forces.
2. Japan: Just a month before taking oath as Prime Minister, the former
Japanese Foreign Minister and current Japanese Prime Minister Fumio
Kishida said in an interview, “Japan should seek to cooperate with
Taiwan and countries that share its values of freedom, democracy and the
rule of law,as authoritarian countries wield more power. Taiwan is at the
front line of the standoff between the U.S. and China,” he said. “Looking at
the situation with Hong Kong and the Uyghurs, I have a strong feeling that
the Taiwan Strait will be the next big problem.” Xi Jinping had a phone
conversation with Mr. Kishida on the 8th of October and as per the official
website of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, he said to the Japanese leader
that “The two countries should properly handle major sensitive issues,
such as historical issues and those concerning Taiwan, properly manage
differences, and steer in the right direction to maintain the political
foundation and overall situation of bilateral relations.” Japan has deployed
JS ISE Helicopter Carrier along with the US and the UK, who have
deployed aircraft carriers USS Carl Vinson and USS Ronald Reagan and
HMS Queen Elizabeth respectively along the southern cost of China to act
as a deterrent against Chinese aggression.
3. Australia: Canberra also expressed concern over the situation along the Taiwan Strait and hoped for a peaceful resolution of disputes. The
response from a spokesperson of the Department of Foreign Affairs and
Trade, Australia to a query posted by Guardian Australia read, “Australia
is concerned by China’s increased air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense
zone over the past week. Resolution of differences over Taiwan and other
regional issues must be achieved peacefully through dialogue and without
the threat or use of force or coercion.” It is pertinent to note that Former
Australian Prime Minister visited Taiwan on the occasion of their
National Day amidst the ongoing crisis. This comes in the backdrop of
the Aukus Pact signed between the United States of America, the United
Kingdom, and Australia on the 15th of September, 2021. Under this
agreement, the US and the UK will help Australia to acquire nuclear
powered submarines and these three countries will also expand
cooperation in "cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum
technologies and additional undersea capabilities.” The main purpose of
this pact is to counter growing Chinese belligerence in the South China
Sea and Indo-Pacific Region.
4. Russia on the other hand has supported the Chinese claim over Taiwan.
During his visit to the Kazakh capital of Nur-e-Sultan, Russian Foreign
Minister said, “Just like the vast majority of other countries, Russia sees
Taiwan as part of the People’s Republic of China. This is the premise from
which we proceed and will continue to proceed in our policy.”
This entire conundrum can be best summed up by this remark of Taiwanese
President Tsai Ing-wen in her essay to the Foreign Affairs magazine. “They
should remember that if Taiwan were to fall, the consequences would be
catastrophic for regional peace and the democratic alliance system. It would
signal that in today’s global contest of values, authoritarianism has the upper
hand over democracy.” Later, on Taiwan’s National Day, President Tsai also
described Taiwan as "standing on democracy's first line of defence." Taiwan’s
fight is one for democracy, freedom, and human rights and the world should
support it.
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